And the Oscar goes to...

Time again to make myself look like a prognosticating genius. The Academy Awards take place in a couple hours, and while I haven't finalized all my picks for the pool--really--I'll slap some quick guess up here and report back on how I do later.

Locks: THE LORD OF THE RINGS: RETURN OF THE KING wins Picture. Peter Jackson wins Director. Charlize Theron is named Best Actress for MONSTER. Tim Robbins nabs Best Supporting Actor for MYSTIC RIVER. FINDING NEMO wins Animated Feature.

Not locks but awfully certain: LOST IN TRANSLATION and MYSTIC RIVER win in the Screenplay categories.

Take your pick: Actor looks like a three horse race rather than a two. I'm probably going to pick Johnny Depp, mainly on the basis that he won the Screen Actors Guild Award. If I chicken out, I'm taking Bill Murray over Sean Penn. Supporting Actress was once thought to be Renee Zellweger's official coronation. As it gets closer, I'm not so sure. If I'm still feeling gutsy, which I am right now, let's go with Shohreh Aghdashloo for HOUSE OF SAND AND FOG.

Who knows: I don't even have all the Foreign Language Film nominees in front of me, but I have a hard time believing that the overrated THE BARBARIAN INVASIONS is going to muster a lot of support. So something other than that, which goes against the conventional wisdom, even if it means I'm essentially picking eighty percent of the nominees. I still don't know what everyone saw in GIRL WITH A PEARL EARRING'S cinematography, so it's obviously the one that will win. The Documentary Feature category is really interesting this year, and the films are pretty good too. My preference (and pick) is CAPTURING THE FRIEDMANS, but I won't quibble with THE FOG OF WAR, unless it costs me the pool. C'mon, though, Errol Morris is probably happy to get that nomination he's deserved for some time, so he can't win, right?

OK, time to head over to the shindig and keep tabs on the red carpet fashions.

Mark